Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.
