Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 13.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.04%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
