Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 27.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
