Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 17.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.53%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
