Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Arsenal has a probability of 30.23% and a draw has a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline was Manchester United 1-1 Arsenal with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines were 1-0 (9.53%), 2-1 (9.18%), 0-1 (7.56%). The actual score line of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9%.