SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 73 | 93 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 38 | 68 | 92 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 38 | 43 | 74 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | -5 | 51 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 38 | -18 | 49 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 4 | 48 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 79.51%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 7.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.91%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-2 (2.36%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
79.51% ( -0) | 12.85% ( -0) | 7.64% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 51.86% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.67% ( 0.01) | 29.33% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.61% ( 0.02) | 50.39% ( -0.02) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.25% | 5.75% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 77.81% ( 0) | 22.18% ( -0.01) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.03% ( 0.01) | 44.97% ( -0.02) |
