SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Southampton | 38 | -24 | 40 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | -23 | 39 |
| 17 | Leeds United | 38 | -37 | 38 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 4 | 48 |
| 13 | Brentford | 38 | -8 | 46 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 38 | -2 | 45 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 48.09%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Everton | Draw | Brentford |
48.09% ( -0.53) | 25.88% ( 0.18) | 26.03% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 50.11% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.58% ( -0.48) | 53.42% ( 0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.05% ( -0.41) | 74.95% ( 0.4) |
| Everton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.77% ( -0.43) | 22.22% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.35% ( -0.66) | 55.65% ( 0.65) |
| Brentford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.43% ( 0.03) | 35.57% ( -0.03) |
