Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 68.05%. A draw has a probability of 20.1% and a win for Newcastle United has a probability of 11.87%.
The most likely scoreline was Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines were 2-0 (13.67%), 1-1 (9.42%), 2-1 (9.34%). The actual score line of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7%.