Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (8.22%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 1-0 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
