The Galaxy have improved defensively from a year ago, but they still make their share of mental errors while often over anticipating critical moments.
Slowly but surely, it seems as though the Timbers are starting to find their footing, and their vast experience should serve them well as they aim to navigate what has been an inconsistent beginning to this campaign.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 49.84%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 0-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
