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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Toronto | 15 | -8 | 15 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire | 15 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | DC United | 14 | -8 | 14 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | Nashville SC | 16 | 1 | 23 |
| 6 | Seattle Sounders | 14 | 3 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 41.32%. A win for Nashville SC had a probability of 31.35% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Nashville SC win was 0-1 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Nashville SC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| DC United | Draw | Nashville SC |
41.32% ( 0.09) | 27.33% ( -0.07) | 31.35% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 48.96% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.59% ( 0.27) | 56.41% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.58% ( 0.22) | 77.42% ( -0.22) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.13% ( 0.17) | 26.87% ( -0.17) |
