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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Real Salt Lake | 16 | 1 | 28 |
| 3 | Austin FC | 15 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Dallas | 15 | 9 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Salt Lake | 16 | 1 | 28 |
| 2 | Dallas | 15 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 1 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 49.44%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Dallas win was 0-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | Dallas |
49.44% ( -0.42) | 23.99% ( 0.05) | 26.56% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 56.53% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.81% ( 0.06) | 45.19% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.46% ( 0.05) | 67.53% ( -0.05) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.64% ( -0.14) | 18.36% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.52% ( -0.24) | 49.48% ( 0.24) |
| Dallas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.25% ( 0.31) | 30.75% ( -0.31) |
