The absence of proven goal-getter Mbappe is huge for PSG, and attempting to breach a resilient Nice rearguard away from home without their top scorer will be a tall order for Pochettino's side.
While we do expect PSG to find a way through, Galtier's side know what it takes to get a result against the capital outfit and will be buoyed by reaching the final of the Coupe de France, so we are expecting the two top-three sides to play out a hotly-contested draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 59.75%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Nice had a probability of 19.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.57%) and 0-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Nice win it was 2-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
