Montpellier beat Lyon twice last season, but look a different prospect with some important absentees - now including their captain. The visitors will have some fresh legs after rotating during the week and we are backing them to secure a narrow away victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 44.22%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.92%) and 0-2 (6.06%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lyon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lyon.
