SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Troyes | 38 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 | Lorient | 38 | -28 | 36 |
| 17 | Clermont | 38 | -31 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 38 | 54 | 86 |
| 2 | Marseille | 38 | 25 | 71 |
| 3 | Monaco | 38 | 25 | 69 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.53%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 27.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.45%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Lorient win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lorient | Draw | Marseille |
27.36% ( -0.01) | 24.12% ( 0.02) | 48.53% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.8% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.85% ( -0.08) | 45.16% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.5% ( -0.08) | 67.5% ( 0.08) |
| Lorient Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.87% ( -0.05) | 30.13% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.73% ( -0.06) | 66.28% ( 0.06) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.3% ( -0.03) | 18.71% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.94% ( -0.06) | 50.07% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lorient | Draw | Marseille |
| 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.06% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.72% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.62% ( -0)Other @ 3.12% Total : 27.36% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.11% | 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.92% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.31% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.43% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.85% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 3.33% Total : 48.53% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 30 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 70 | 29 | 41 | 69 |
| 2 | Lens | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 50 | 22 | 28 | 63 |
| 3 | Marseille | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 60 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 58 |
| 5 | Lille | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 52 |
| 6 | Rennes | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 50 |
| 7 | Lyon | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 33 | 14 | 47 |
| 8 | Reims | 30 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 47 |
| 9 | Nice | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 |
| 10 | Lorient | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 44 |
| 11 | Clermont | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 38 |
| 13 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 37 |
| 14 | NantesNantes | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 51 | -24 | 29 |
| 16 | Brest | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 28 |
| 17 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 26 |
| 18 | Troyes | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 38 | 64 | -26 | 21 |
| 19 | Ajaccio | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 55 | -34 | 21 |
| 20 | Angers | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 14 |
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