Monaco have come out very aggressively and have been lethal in the final third, so we expect them to continue their strong play at home with a striker in Ben Yedder who is in fine form, while on the opposite side, the absence of Ekambi seems to be affecting a team that need to find alternative sources to score.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 49.72%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Lyon win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
