Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Leon win with a probability of 62.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 15.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Leon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.8%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
