Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 40.27%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
