Despite their lengthy unbeaten streak, Saturday could have taken a lot out of Northampton. Even with Mansfield having failed to win either of their last two fixtures, we feel that the home side should capitalise on the mindset of their opponents to claim a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Mansfield Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Mansfield Town.
