The visitors have got a lot of fortunate bounces in recent matches but have not been at their best on the road this season, with their only significant victory coming at Sunderland, while their other positive away outcomes were versus weaker opponents.
Even though the results have not been there as often as they would have liked lately, the Pilgrims seem to be close to turning the corner, and we expect them to have a little more quality than their opponents on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 43.27%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
