The outcome of this one highly depends on the number of absentees that Oxford will be suffering from, but considering the possibility that they will remain without a few of their first-team players at least, we are predicting Fleetwood to pick up at least a point here.
Oxford would normally be the favourites for a comfortable win against struggling opponents in this one, but their troubling situation presents Fleetwood with the chance to pick up a vital draw or victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 62.45%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 16.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
