Osasuna have had longer to prepare for this match, which should aid them on Saturday, especially in the second half. Rayo's home form this season has been excellent, though, so we are finding it difficult to predict a defeat for the capital side, instead settling on a low-scoring draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 44.18%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 27.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.04%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
