SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 30 | 73 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 22 | 71 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 38 | 23 | 70 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 49 | 86 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 30 | 73 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 22 | 71 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 38.27%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
38.27% ( -1.28) | 25.87% ( -0.21) | 35.87% ( 1.49) |
| Both teams to score 54.65% ( 0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.37% ( 1.08) | 49.62% ( -1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.35% ( 0.97) | 71.64% ( -0.96) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.6% ( -0.2) | 25.4% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.8% ( -0.27) | 60.2% ( 0.27) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.25% ( 1.42) | 26.75% ( -1.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.98% ( 1.84) | 62.02% ( -1.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 9.31% ( -0.47) 2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.36)3-1 @ 3.84% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.55% Total : 38.27% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 6.79% ( -0.3)2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.86% | 0-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0.24)0-3 @ 2.6% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.15)1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.14% Total : 35.87% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 48 |
| 2 | GironaGirona | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 48 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 38 |
| 5 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 23 | 16 | 38 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 32 |
| 7 | Real BetisBetis | 19 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 28 |
| 8 | Getafe | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Valencia | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 26 |
| 10 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 25 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 22 |
| 13 | Villarreal | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 19 |
| 14 | Mallorca | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 18 |
| 15 | AlavesAlaves | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 16 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 16 |
| 18 | CadizCadiz | 19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 15 |
| 19 | Granada | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 11 |
| 20 | Almeria | 19 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 5 |
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