With two rivals and two of the league's strongest defences squaring off in a crucial battle, we see this being a cagey affair and predict a low-scoring draw as the most likely outcome.
Both have the ability to neutralise one another's attacking threats with organised structures, and we cannot quite pick a winner for this edition of the Basque Derby as a result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
