SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 38 | 9 | 63 |
| 7 | Sagan Tosu | 38 | 8 | 59 |
| 8 | Avispa Fukuoka | 38 | 5 | 54 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Avispa Fukuoka | 38 | 5 | 54 |
| 9 | FC Tokyo | 38 | -4 | 53 |
| 10 | Consadole Sapporo | 37 | -1 | 51 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 47.43%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for FC Tokyo had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a FC Tokyo win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sagan Tosu would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sagan Tosu | Draw | FC Tokyo |
47.43% ( -0.17) | 27.27% ( 0.03) | 25.3% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 45.6% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
