Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dominica win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Saint Vincent & the Grenadines had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dominica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.9%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Saint Vincent & the Grenadines win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dominica would win this match.
