Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
