Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 56.23%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 17.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.61%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.72%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
