Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Kairat had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Kairat win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
