While AZ have improved of late, they are not doing enough to suggest that they can put together a consistent run in the future. With that in mind, we are backing the home side to edge a tight contest by the odd goal in three.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
