SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Cambuur | 33 | -18 | 36 |
| 13 | RKC Waalwijk | 33 | -13 | 35 |
| 14 | Heracles | 33 | -14 | 34 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | RKC Waalwijk | 33 | -13 | 35 |
| 14 | Heracles | 33 | -14 | 34 |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 33 | -20 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 53.79%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 22.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RKC Waalwijk would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Heracles |
53.79% ( 3.29) | 23.95% ( -1.42) | 22.25% ( -1.87) |
| Both teams to score 51.97% ( 2.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51% ( 3.9) | 49% ( -3.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.92% ( 3.43) | 71.08% ( -3.43) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.87% ( 2.83) | 18.13% ( -2.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.91% ( 4.62) | 49.09% ( -4.62) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.48% ( 0.43) | 36.52% ( -0.44) |
