Both teams have struggled for goals all-season long, so we expect a low-scoring affair in this one with clear-cut chances at a premium. That said, we are also backing Heracles to narrowly edge out Zwolle by the odd goal and come away with all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 55.96%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
