Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.61%) and 0-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-0 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
