Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 56.99%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 22.09% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.86%) and 1-0 (7.52%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (5.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
