Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 48.51%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 2-1 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
