Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.