High-flying Ecuador welcome bottom-of-the-standings Venezuela to the Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado on Thursday evening for the latest round of World Cup 2022 South American qualifiers.
The hosts have been overachieving so far this campaign, surpassing expectations to currently sit third in the table, but the last time these two sides met, the result did not follow the form book.
Match preview
After a stellar start to the qualifiers back in 2020, which included a 4-2 win over Uruguay and an incredible 6-1 win against Colombia, Ecuador's form has started to slip recently.
They appear to be hanging onto their qualification spot, with the bigger names behind closing in - their former victims Colombia and Uruguay are now only one point below them and Chile are four points back in sixth.
Their last five qualifiers have featured just one win, and La Tri even fell to a shock defeat to upcoming opponents Venezuela in their last encounter just over a month ago.
Enner Valencia gave his side the lead from the penalty spot but the hosts then turned the match around, with Darwin Machis scoring in first-half stoppage time and Eduardo Bello in the 64th minute to snatch just their second win of the campaign.
Gustavo Alfaro will be hoping that his men can make amends for that loss on Thursday and, surprisingly, take their first win in the last five meetings between the two teams.
Venezuela came into that game on the back of an unwanted 10-match winless run in all competitions and, despite the victory, their chances of progressing still look incredibly slim.
As we enter the final stages of the campaign, La Vinotinto remain rooted to the bottom of the table, four points adrift of Peru in ninth and nine points below the qualification spots.
They will be hoping to, at least, close the gap to the pack by repeating their performance against Ecuador from last month, although that result was something of a rarity, as it was their first win in eight encounters with the team in a fixture which has often ended as a stalemate in recent years.
They were also unable to build any momentum from the victory, falling to a 3-0 defeat away at Chile five days later.
Leonardo Gonzalez was named interim manager of the national side in August - replacing the sacked Jose Peseiro, who departed claiming he had not been paid for several months - and has a sizeable task on his hands to reclaim a bit of pride following some sparse years for one of the continent's traditional minnows.
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Team News
Main man Valencia will not be able to add to his 34 goals in 67 appearances for Ecuador as a ligament injury prevented the country's top scorer from being selected and will see him sidelined for over a month.
In addition, defenders Pervis Estupinan and Diego Palacios, as well as striker Angel Mena, will all be unavailable.
Alfaro tends to play a variant on 3-4-3 at home or against apparently lesser nations, meaning they are very likely to go with that formation on Thursday.
The visitors will also be missing an important striker as Salomon Rondon opted against joining the national side this week to concentrate on getting sharper for Everton.
Josef Martinez also misses out on the squad once again, but his near-namesake Jose Martinez has earned another call-up after a standout three-game run in the last qualifiers and some strong recent performances for Philadelphia Union.
Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Torres, Hincapie, Arboleda; Estupinan, Gruezo, Caicedo, Preciado; Mena, Plata, Estrada
Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Hernandez, Martinez, Ferraresi, O. Gonzalez; Rincon, Martinez; Machis, Bello, Savarino; Ramirez
We say: Ecuador 2-0 Venezuela
We are backing the home side to right the wrongs of their last meeting with Venezuela and return to winning ways. Both sides are missing their talisman but Ecuador should be able to find goals from somewhere in the attacking half and will make their home advantage count.
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