This will be the first ever cup meeting between the two sides, and though Union Berlin may be the team that are in better form, Hertha Berlin have won the last two derbies at the Olympiastadion, which is why we believe they will edge out their local rivals on Wednesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7%) and 0-2 (5.85%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
