Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
