Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.66%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
