Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Penarol win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Porteno would win this match.
