SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Atletico Goianiense | 10 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 | Juventude | 10 | -7 | 10 |
| 20 | Fortaleza | 10 | -6 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Fortaleza |
45.75% ( -0.14) | 24.55% ( 0.02) | 29.7% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 57.02% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.38% ( -0.04) | 45.62% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.05% ( -0.04) | 67.94% ( 0.04) |
| Alianza Lima Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.96% ( -0.08) | 20.04% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.75% ( -0.12) | 52.25% ( 0.12) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.31% ( 0.06) | 28.69% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.49% ( 0.07) | 64.51% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.24% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.43% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.91% Total : 45.75% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.54% | 1-2 @ 7.21% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 29.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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