Athletic ought to feel capable of going all the way in the Copa del Rey given the calibre of opponents they have already overcome, and Marcelino remains blessed with a near fully-fit squad.
Valencia's inconsistent patch will likely see them concede a narrow first-leg advantage to the hosts, leaving Bordalas's side with it all to do in the second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 46.01%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
