We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Madrid
A wealth of Real Madrid absentees coupled with an Athletic Bilbao side starting to rediscover their stride and out for revenge should lead to a truly intriguing battle at San Mames, one which Ancelotti's side may not actually head into as favourites.
The result of this quarter-final may very well come down to how many troops Ancelotti is able to recover for Thursday, but we can see the quarter-final curse continuing for Real Madrid as Athletic keep their hopes of a third successive final appearance alive.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 54.4%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 23.16% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.
