Even putting aside the two teams' recent form, it is actually Almeria who have the better record in this fixture in the last few years. Whilst Elche won the most recent encounter - after La Rojiblancos were reduced to 10 men - the remaining five of their last six meetings have ended in three wins for Almeria and two draws. We are backing the home side to make that four wins on Thursday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 60.88%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Elche had a probability of 16.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.79%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.68%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
