Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-0 (10.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.