We said: Lille 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg
Lille's depleted defence and midfield will have a hard time keeping out Salzburg's bright young attackers, but the visitors have struggled for consistency in recent weeks.
With Group G surely set to go right down to the wire either way, we expect a share of the spoils at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, with Gourvennec's hopes of victory dashed by a concerning number of regular starters absent.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 37.68%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lille in this match.
