This result could well depend on the character of the hosts to keep on pushing in the final few games of the season despite having little left to play for, as well as the fitness of the visitors in between their Europa League semi-final ties.
However, Gladbach have lacked quality and consistency for much of this season, and although Leipzig are not firing on all cylinders at the moment, they should manage to grind out a narrow victory here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 55.12%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 23.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.66%) and 0-1 (7.55%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
