Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 33.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.94%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 1-0 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.
