Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
